Examining the Future of the Region Based on Geopolitical, Economic, and Military Changes

Abstract

Geopolitical, economic, and military developments in recent decades have profoundly transformed the structure of power in the Middle East and West Asia. In this context, Iran, as one of the main regional actors, plays a decisive role in shaping the political and security future of this geographical sphere. Using a futures studies approach and drawing on the PESTEL analytical model and the method of strategic scenario writing, the present study examines the trends and driving forces that will affect Iran’s position in regional developments during the period from 2025 to 2035. The research data were collected based on statistics and credible reports from international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the International Energy Agency (IEA), and were evaluated in three geopolitical, economic, and military domains through qualitative content analysis and scenario planning. The findings indicate that shifts in regional alliances, developments in the global energy market, the advancement of defense technologies, and sanctions policies are four key variables shaping the future trajectory of the region. Accordingly, three probable scenarios are presented: “strengthening Iran’s strategic role and consolidating its regional position,” “the continuation of pressures and the relative decline of influence,” and “a transition toward multilateral regional cooperation.” A comparative examination of these scenarios suggests that foreign policy flexibility, diversification of the national economy, and the development of technology-oriented defense capabilities will be the most important factors for success in confronting a challenging future. These findings can provide a basis for Iran’s macro-level policymaking and national security strategies in the coming decade.