Value of Information in Dynamic Decision Making

Abstract

We study the value of information in predicting the evolving state of a finite Markov chain. At each stage, a decision maker chooses a state and observes only whether the current state of the chain matches her choice; the resulting information is used to make a prediction on the state at the final stage of the problem. We show that, when the chain starts from an invariant distribution, the optimal terminal value is non-decreasing with the number of observations and converges at a uniform exponential rate. We introduce the predictive learning index, which measures whether all attainable informational value is extracted after finitely many observations, and show that both finite and infinite indices may occur. In contrast, for nonstationary initial distributions, the value may strictly decrease with the horizon.