Multi-Temporal Satellite Observations and Machine Learning-Based Flood Susceptibility Assessment of the 2025 Punjab Flood

Abstract

Over the past decade, the Punjab plains of Northern India have experienced recurrent flooding driven by hydroclimatic variability, specifically shifts in western disturbances that have intensified monsoon precipitation. Following a devastating flood in 2025, the region remains highly vulnerable to hydrological extremes, a risk further exacerbated by shifting land use and agricultural patterns, geomorphic parameters, and complex fluvial systems. This study assesses flood susceptibility by integrating multi-sensor satellite observations, multi-temporal Sentinel-1 backscatter signals, and refined runoff potential estimates derived from local climate zones, accounting for land cover, soil type, and infiltration characteristics, into machine learning frameworks. The model is trained using a 2025 flood inventory generated from a synthetic aperture radar backscatter threshold ratio. The calibrated frameworks are applied to the 2023 flood events to test independent transferability. The temporal consistency and predictive performance of the models are evaluated using the precision–recall trade-offs, threshold-dependent predicted probability distribution, and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results indicate more balanced classification performance of Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting in comparison to Artificial Neural Network performance that exhibits higher recall with lower precision. The model performance for 2023 models is considered more robust, with greater class separability of 2023 flood events than for 2025. Probability distributions for both events further demonstrate model-dependent threshold behavior, highlighting a trade-off between flood detection sensitivity. SHAP identifies rainfall, soil moisture, runoff, and elevation as the dominant contributors. The analysis further indicates that all model frameworks effectively capture the physical control of hydrological and topographical variability on the temporal flood events. The consistent contribution of hydrological and topographical factors across the two events supports model transferability, while threshold sensitivity, uncertainty, and spatial dependence are important considerations for flood susceptibility modelling. The results reflect a balanced interaction between extreme rainfall, runoff potential, and topographic control in causing periodic floods in the Punjab plains.