Surface Water–Groundwater–Rainwater Interactions in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, Bangladesh: A Critical Review of Modeling and Decision-Support Approaches

Abstract

Mountainous regions often experience a hydrological paradox where high monsoon rainfall coincides with severe dry-season water scarcity. The Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of southeastern Bangladesh represent this challenge, as steep terrain, fractured geology, rapid runoff and limited monitoring constrain sustainable water-resource planning. This review critically evaluated water-resource characteristics, modeling approaches and decision-support strategies for the CHT. The literature shows that standalone models such as SWAT, MODFLOW and SWMM are useful for specific water-cycle components but do not adequately represent cross-domain processes including deep recharge, baseflow and stream–aquifer exchange in steep, complex terrain. International analogue studies indicate that coupled surface water–groundwater models can improve process representation when streamflow, groundwater-level, lithological and recharge data are available. However, their direct calibration and validation in the CHT remain limited by sparse groundwater monitoring and weak hydrogeological characterization. CHT-related and comparable Bangladesh studies indicate that machine-learning (ML) models can improve predictive suitability mapping when representative training data and independent validation are available; however, their relative advantage over the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is application-specific and depends on data quality, validation design, spatial autocorrelation, and model interpretability. The review identifies three key gaps: inadequate groundwater monitoring, absence of calibrated coupled modeling for fractured aquifers, and limited integration of socio-economic factors in rainwater-harvesting feasibility. Finally, a staged modeling pathway is proposed.