Effectiveness of land management practices in enhancing baseflow and low-flow resilience in the Seonath River Basin

Abstract

Monsoon-dominated river basins are increasingly vulnerable to rainfall variability, resulting in enhanced runoff and dry-season water stress. This study evaluated the effectiveness of land management practices (LMPs) in improving baseflow, soil moisture persistence, and low-flow resilience in the Seonath River Basin, India, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated and validated with multi-site streamflow observations, achieving satisfactory performance (Kling–Gupta efficiency up to 0.83 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.81–0.86). Baseline simulations indicated a highly seasonal hydrological regime, with baseflow contributing approximately 44% of annual streamflow. Future climate projections (CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR) suggest a modest increase (∼5%) in annual rainfall but increased hydrological variability, characterized by higher runoff and groundwater recharge, reduced soil moisture persistence, and diminished low-flow reliability. Scenario analyses showed that contour farming, agroforestry, and check dams enhanced baseflow by 11–26%, improved soil moisture by 8–21%, and reduced low-flow deficits by 20–40%. The combined LMP scenario produced the greatest benefits, increasing baseflow by about 36% and Q95 flow by more than 50%, thereby substantially improving dry-season flow resilience. These findings demonstrate that integrated LMPs provide an effective nature-based strategy for enhancing hydrological resilience in monsoon-dominated river basins.