Probabilism is the thesis that the degrees of belief of rational agents behave like Kolmogorovian probabilities. There are quite different lines of argument for probabilism in the literature, including Dutch book arguments, arguments based on representation theorems, and epistemic utility arguments. This paper focusses on the Dutch book line of argument, the core idea of which is that nonprobabilistic degrees of belief generate irrational betting behavior. Different versions of the argument have been presented, often in response to objections to earlier versions. The aim of this paper is to develop a new, stronger version that avoids the problems of previous iterations—indeed to formulate the best possible argument based on the core idea.
Expected utility maximization with unbounded utilities implies that tiny probabilities of huge positive or negative payoffs can dominate overall expected‐utility calculations. In other words, it leads to
fanaticism
. Fanaticism is counterintuitive, as illustrated by cases such as Pascal's Mugging and the St. Pete...
Petra Kosonen· Philosophical Perspectives· 0 citations
As Gascón (2015) notes, the capacity to evaluate arguments—understood in the abstract, propositional sense—has been “the first matter of concern” in virtue argumentation theory. Recent exchanges, including Aberdein’s (2023) response to Siegel (2023), show the debate continues. This paper offers a more comprehensive rev...
The book presents a novel, abductivist theory of knowledge and argues for it over its two main rivals: safety theory and causal explanationism. According to abductivism, a belief constitutes knowledge when, given the way it is formed or maintained, the best explanation of its being true rather than false lies in the...
This article argues that Russell's paradox can be solved by amending the theory in a zigzag fashion. The first part of the article sets out several reasons why this kind of revision to Frege's system is preferable to other solutions. More specifically, we argue that the extensionality function implicitly described by F...
Ludovica Conti· Teorema. Revista Internacion...· 0 citations
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