Multiple Environmental Determinants of Opuntia stricta Distribution: Habitat Suitability Across Global Biomes

Abstract

Simple Summary Opuntia stricta is a globally invasive cactus that threatens many natural ecosystems. In this study, we assessed the temporal patterns of its reported occurrence records and predicted its potential distribution under current environmental conditions. Our results indicate a marked increase in reported occurrences in recent decades and show that habitat suitability is primarily influenced by climatic factors, particularly temperature and moisture availability. Mediterranean and subtropical regions showed relatively high predicted habitat suitability for O. stricta. Our comparison of native and introduced environmental niches also provided new insights into the environmental conditions associated with the global spread of O. stricta. Soil predictors provided secondary predictive information, whereas the HII provided comparatively little additional information. The continued spread of O. stricta may seriously impact agriculture, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. Therefore, improved monitoring, early detection, and careful management are essential to prevent further expansion and reduce future risks. This study provides important information that can guide the development of effective prevention and control strategies worldwide.