Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents

Evaluating Confidence-Gated Retrieval with Matched Trajectory Replay

Interactive language-model agents use confidence signals to decide whether to answer immediately, retrieve additional evidence (from memory or external knowledge), or defer. Yet confidence is usually evaluated in isolation, without measuring the trajectory-level consequences of the actions it triggers. We propose matched trajectory replay, a controlled protocol for comparing confidence-to-action mappings. The protocol holds candidate answer states, evidence points, budgets, and action costs fixed. We use it to compare raw verbalized confidence with post-hoc isotonic calibration in a multi-hop question-answering system using Mistral, GPT, and Qwen models on HotpotQA and MuSiQue datasets. At the same numerical commitment threshold, calibration changes which questions agents ultimately commit to answering. Across all six model-dataset pairs, it increases accuracy among committed answers by up to 41 percentage points. However, it can reduce coverage and increase retrieval use. Overall accuracy improves by up to 15 percentage points on HotpotQA but falls by up to 17 percentage points on MuSiQue. These effects reflect a shift to a more selective, lower-risk operating point, not improved answers or confidence ranking. A calibration map fitted before retrieval improves held-out calibration through retrieval depths one and two, but is worse than raw confidence at depth three for all three models. Additional evidence helps on average, but this aggregate effect does not establish whether confidence identifies which individual episodes will benefit from another retrieval. Taken together, these results show that calibration can make commitment risk interpretable, but it does not estimate the expected benefit of another retrieval. Retrieval therefore requires a separate value-of-information or utility estimate. Evaluations should report held-out calibration, risk-coverage, and retrieval cost.

From Sequence to Structure: Relational Uncertainty Propagation for LLM Agents

Experimental results show that RUPA consistently outperforms existing UQ methods by providing more accurate uncertainty estimates, enabling earlier failure detection, and improving uncertainty-guided agent execution across diverse agent tasks.

trajectory-judge: What Outcome-Only LLM Judges Miss on Agent Trajectories

Outcome-only evaluation is the production default for LLM agents: show a judge the request and the final reply and ask whether it was handled well. The metric is structurally blind to an agent that reaches the right answer the wrong way. We measure that blind spot where ground truth is known by construction: a deterministic tool-using support-desk environment, a scripted oracle policy that always solves it, and a fault injector that breaks exactly one thing at a known step, stratifying faults by whether the customer-visible outcome survived (silent) or not (loud). Five judges (programmatic rules, outcome-only, step-rubric at two model sizes, and a self-consistency ensemble) are scored on detection, step localisation, fault typing, calibration, and cost over 400 trajectories. The outcome-only judge catches 84% of loud faults but 45% of silent ones while flagging 33% of correct trajectories; a step-rubric judge reaches 77% silent recall with zero false alarms at 3x the cost. No judge reads the final reply: an invented promise appended to an otherwise perfect trajectory evades the rules entirely and the step judge 82% of the time, and self-consistency triples cost while improving nothing. We argue that judge evaluations must stratify recall by outcome survival, and release the environment, the injector, all raw verdicts, and an analysis pipeline that rebuilds every number offline.

Agent Step Value: State-Transition Measurement with State-Grounded LLM Evaluators

Gated-BEPO: Confidence-Gated Bellman Credit Assignment for Large Language Model Agents

Training large language model agents in long-horizon environments requires assigning credit from sparse terminal outcomes to individual actions. Existing critic-free methods propagate trajectory-level rewards uniformly across steps, while recent approaches construct step-level groups by matching repeated states and compare actions within each group. The former cannot distinguish useful actions in failed trajectories from ineffective actions in successful ones. The latter rely on step credit derived directly from individual trajectory outcomes and fixed-weight fusion with episode-level credit. We propose Gated-BEPO, which derives step-level credit from empirical rollout graphs. For each rollout group, Gated-BEPO constructs an empirical graph and estimates node values through a mean-backup Bellman fixed point that reflects the empirical action distribution of the current policy. We then accumulate these temporal-difference residuals along each sampled trajectory using generalized advantage estimation, yielding step-level Bellman advantages that capture both immediate and downstream effects. To adaptively fuse episode- and step-level credit, a confidence gate incorporates Bellman credit only at states with multiple observed successors and otherwise uses episode-level credit. Experiments on WebShop, ALFWorld, and visual Sokoban show consistent improvements across language and vision-language models, while diagnostic ablations support the effectiveness of Bellman fixed-point value estimation and show that step-level credit should be incorporated selectively rather than uniformly into the final advantage.

A Systematic Evaluation of Trajectory Data Curation for LoRA Fine-Tuning of Code Agents

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of open-weight LLMs on expert agent trajectories has emerged as a prominent approach to building capable code agents without reliance on proprietary models. A central yet underexplored question is how trajectory quality and quantity jointly shape model performance. We present a systematic empirical study of trajectory data filtering for LoRA fine-tuning of Qwen2.5-Coder-7B-Instruct on the SWE-trajectory dataset (67,074 trajectories, of which 32,161 are resolved). We propose a two-axis quality scoring framework -- Efficiency and Style -- and evaluate it through 16 controlled experiments spanning strategy, scale, and ablation analyses. Since 7B-scale models attain near-zero SWE-bench resolve rates, we adopt cross-entropy (CE) loss on held-out trajectories as the primary metric, validated via first-action generation: CE loss and ROUGE-L are perfectly rank-correlated (Spearman $\rho$ = -1.00), with limited-sample evidence supporting but not conclusively establishing this proxy. Our results reveal a scale-dependent quality-quantity trade-off: at small scales, doubling the dataset (500 to 1,000) yields ~12.7% CE-loss reduction whereas the TopQ-Random gap stays<1% (Mann-Whitney p>0.10); at 2,000 trajectories this same gap widens to 3.6% (p = 0.016). Ablation further identifies error-retry rate as the dominant sub-dimension, performing comparably to the full composite ($\Delta$<0.2%). Together, these findings establish trajectory-level quality scoring as a viable but scale-sensitive lever for code-agent SFT and offer a proxy-validated evaluation protocol for the regime where end-to-end resolve rate is statistically infeasible.