Prioritizing Circular Agriculture Indicators in Azerbaijan: An AHP-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation

Abstract

Circular agriculture holds significant importance in the developing world, just as the concept of circularity holds importance. In this context, the article evaluates and prioritizes the strategic components of circular agriculture in Azerbaijan using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multi-criteria decision-making method designed to transform subjective expert assessments into quantitative data. Using national statistical data from 1990 to 2023, the study identified four key indicators, which were access to irrigation infrastructure, the structural share of livestock production, total agricultural output, and agricultural waste management performance. Pairwise comparisons were conducted using Saaty’s 1–9 scale, with the participation of 20 experts from academia, policy and industry ensuring a robust and consistent model (CR ≈ 0.089). The findings reveal a “hierarchical necessity” within Azerbaijan’s agricultural transition. Access to irrigation infrastructure (37.0%) and the share of livestock production (35.9%) emerged as the most critical strategic priorities. These results indicate that modernization of water systems and the development of closed-loop livestock models, such as the feed-manure-biogas cycle, are essential prerequisites for circularity. Conversely, agricultural waste management was given the lowest priority (9.4%), suggesting that stakeholders in transition economies prioritise resource efficiency and input security over waste valorisation. The study concludes that current agricultural capacity in Azerbaijan remains largely theoretical due to structural vulnerabilities such as water scarcity and fragmented land ownership. Consequently, the focus of policy must shift from purely quantitative growth to resource-efficient strategies and integrated institutional governance. This research provides a replicable quantitative framework to guide the sustainable transformation of agriculture in Azerbaijan and other emerging economies.