Opportunities for Russian-South Korean Business Cooperation in the New Geopolitical Reality

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of Russian-South Korean business relations between 2022 and 2026 against the backdrop of a geopolitical crisis and shifting foreign policy paradigms. It analyses the evolution of bilateral interaction from a model of strategic partnership towards one of “forced pragmatism”, driven both by institutional changes in Russia and by the tightening of the Republic of Korea’s sanctions regime under the influence of the United States. The aim of this study is to identify the structural changes in bilateral cooperation and to determine the conditions under which a “quiet normalisation” might be achieved in the medium term. To this end, the author examines the dynamics of mutual trade turnover and the reasons for its decline, the reconfiguration of logistics chains, and the phenomenon of Korean businesses’ “hidden presence” through jurisdictions of the EAEU member states. The methodological framework comprises a systematic analysis of statistical data, official statements, and sectoral reports, as well as a comparative assessment of the adaptive strategies employed by South Korean chaebols. The findings indicate that the formation of the Moscow-Pyongyang military-political alliance (2024–2026) has created structural obstacles to restoring bilateral relations, rendering a return to the 2021 status quo impossible. It is also shown that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has prompted Seoul to reconsider its own energy-related sanctions and to reopen debate on the feasibility of importing Russian hydrocarbons. The conclusion is that future cooperation will be confined to narrowly pragmatic projects, including the Northern Sea Route, the resource base of the Siberian Arctic, and Eurasian intermediary arrangements, while high volatility persists owing to the Republic of Korea’s reliance on its alliance commitments to the United States.