Burden, trends, and forecasts of ischemic heart disease in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, 1990 to 2023: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study 2023

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to assess the burden, long-term trends, sex-specific inequalities, and future projections of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, 1990 to 2023. Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study. Sex- and age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) were analyzed. Change over time was assessed using percentage change, estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and joinpoint regression. Forecasts to 2050 were produced by using ARIMA and exponential smoothing models. Results: The highest age-standardized mortality and DALY rates in 2023 were in Saudi Arabia (179.8/100,000 and 3311.8/100,000, respectively) and the highest age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates were in Kuwait (336.4/100,000 and 4315.2/100,000, respectively). Saudi Arabia showed the worst improvement with stable mortality (EAPC 0.29%; 95% CI, âˆ'0.05 to 0.62), increasing prevalence (EAPC 0.19%; 95% CI, 0.07â€"0.31), and increasing YLDs. Joinpoint regression detected multiple inflection points in trends with steep declines in the 1990s and more gradual improvements. Males had a consistently higher IHD burden in all countries. Projections to 2050 showed decreases in most GCC countries, with the highest burden of mortality and DALYs projected to be in Saudi Arabia. Conclusion: The burden of IHD was found to be still high in most of the GCC countries, with significant progress in its reduction but with considerable inter-country differences.