IT Labor Market in Ukraine and the World: Key Vectors of Development

Structural transformation of the global IT market and its development forecast for 2027–2031

The article examines the structural transformation of the global information technology market in the context of deepening the digitalization of the economy and expanding demand for data processing infrastructure. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the IT market is increasingly acting not only as an independent sector of the global economy, but also as a basic mechanism for technological modernization, ensuring the development of digital platforms, cloud services, artificial intelligence and corporate information systems. The purpose of the study is to identify key areas of change in the structure of the global IT market and to forecast its development for 2027-2031. The information base was compiled by the Gartner analytical agency on the volume of the global IT market in 2017-2026. by main segments: data processing systems, software, devices, IT services, and communication services. The methodological basis of the study is formed by structural and dynamic analysis, calculation of average annual growth rates, assessment of changes in segment shares and trend extrapolation based on a second-order polynomial trend line. As a result of the study, it was found that the development of the global IT market is accompanied by a transition from a model focused primarily on access infrastructure and user devices to a model based on data processing, software platforms, cloud solutions and professional IT services. According to the results of trend forecasting, the total volume of the global IT market by 2031 may reach about 9.68 trillion US dollars. It is concluded that in the medium term, the main growth factors of the global IT market will be software, IT services and data processing systems that form the technological basis of the data economy and artificial intelligence.

Development Features of the International IT Services Market amid Global Transformations

The relevance of this study is driven by the rapid growth of IT services in global trade and their transformation into a strategic resource for economic development amid digitalization, geopolitical instability, and deep transformations of global value and service chains. Despite the extensive body of literature addressing individual aspects of IT services development, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of the international IT services market as an integrated system simultaneously changing in volume, geography, sectoral structure, and technological drivers. The purpose of the article is to identify key trends, dynamics, and structural changes in the international IT services market under current conditions of global transformations. The methodological basis of the study comprises a set of general scientific and specialized methods: statistical analysis, comparative analysis, structural analysis, graphical method, and generalization. The information base was formed using data from the World Bank, Trade Map, World Integrated Trade Solution, the World Trade Organization, and international analytical companies for 2020–2024, with forecast estimates through 2030. The study finds that global exports of information and communication services grew from USD 785.48 billion in 2020 to USD 1,260.00 billion in 2024, representing a 60.4% increase. The global IT services market expanded from USD 0.99 trillion to USD 1.47 trillion over the same period, with projections reaching USD 2.59 trillion by 2030. The geographic structure of ICT services exports is highly concentrated: in 2024, leading positions were held by Ireland (24.5%), India (14.4%), the United States (7.4%), China (5.3%), and the United Kingdom (4.9%). The sectoral structure of the market is shifting from traditional technical support towards complex integrated services, dominated by IT solutions development and implementation (30%) and IT systems management (26%). Key technological drivers identified include cloud computing, artificial intelligence, big data, cybersecurity, digital platforms, and business process automation. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive integration of multiple levels of analysis of the international IT services market, enabling its examination as a unified system changing simultaneously in scale, structure, geography, and technological content. The practical value of the findings lies in their applicability by IT companies, public authorities, and investors for developing digital sector strategies and defining priorities in digital economy and IT services export policy.

Global development trends and their impact on the Ukrainian economy and business in 2025

In recent years, the continuous and rapid development of technological innovations, and above all digital innovations, has been radically transforming established processes in global production of goods and services, as well as production and supply chains. This is leading to flexible yet unstable development at all levels of the global economy, changing the nature of relationships among economic actors at the micro-, macro-, and meso-levels, and affecting all spheres of citizens’ lives. In this context, global crises are becoming a permanent feature and require public administration and business management systems to promptly identify and control manifestations of such disruptions in the socioeconomic environment and to select scientifically sound and relevant tools to ensure governability toward the sustainable development of society. This article identifies and substantiates the hypothesis that timely identified and well-founded trends lay the foundation for rethinking the nature of ongoing processes and analyzing the strategic behavior of both economic entities and authorized government bodies. It is argued that the key factor influencing socio-economic processes today is the war in Ukraine, as its consequences affect various regions of the world, causing serious problems for the global economy, characterized by a slowdown in growth, rapid inflation, and recession. It has been established that artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will have a key impact; therefore, the effective use of AI should be aimed at remaining flexible, understanding market needs, and constantly adapting to technological progress. Furthermore, investments in artificial intelligence solutions will enable companies not only to optimize business operations and reduce costs but also to provide customers with the expected value and experience. A proposal has been substantiated regarding the need for broad involvement of the domestic scientific community, with mandatory collaboration with European partners within the framework of European integration programs, to analyze and forecast identified trends with the aim of making them systematic and scientifically sound. Key objectives of state economic policy have been developed and proposed as a response to the challenges posed by global development trends. Keywords: global trends, economic development, state economic policy, threats and challenges.

AN OVERVIEW OF THE GLOBAL IT SERVICES MARKET IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

This article examines the key trends, structure and prospects for the development of the global IT services market in the context of digital transformation, as well as justifying strategies to enhance the competitiveness of the Ukrainian IT sector. The relevance of this research stems from the acceleration of digital transformation, the impact of geopolitical instability, energy crises and technological competition between nations. IT services (cloud computing, artificial intelligence, Big Data, cybersecurity, software development) have become a key driver of the digital economy, which accounts for 15–22 per cent of global GDP. The aim of this article is to identify the key characteristics, trends and prospects for the development of the global IT services market within the digital economy, and to formulate recommendations for strengthening the position of the Ukrainian IT sector. To achieve this aim, the article analyses market volume trends, influencing factors (digital transformation, geopolitics), the market structure by segment, regional characteristics, and a comparative analysis of the positioning of developed and developing countries. Methods of systemic, structural, comparative, graphical and dynamic analysis were employed. The main findings show the dominance of managed services and outsourcing, rapid growth in cloud services, cybersecurity and AI with analytics. The leading exporters of IT services are the US, the UK and Ireland. Developed countries focus on innovation and high added value, whilst developing countries (including Ukraine) focus on outsourcing and exports. For Ukraine, the IT sector is of strategic importance for foreign exchange earnings, economic resilience and post-war recovery. The report justifies the need to transition from an outsourcing model to the creation of proprietary products with high added value. A set of recommendations has been proposed across 12 areas: improving public policy, developing human capital, stimulating innovation, integrating science, education and business, developing digital infrastructure, strengthening cybersecurity, international integration, diversifying services, attracting investment, regional development, enhancing resilience and harmonising legislation with the EU. Consequently, the strategic development of the Ukrainian IT market must be based on the integration of academia, business and the state, the promotion of innovation, and alignment with European standards. The implementation of the proposed measures will help to enhance the sector’s global competitiveness, increase exports of high-tech services, and strengthen the country’s economic security in the context of digital transformation.

TECHNOLOGY MARKET DURING THE WAR AND ECONOMIC TRENDS IN ITS DEVELOPMENT

THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN RUSSIA: TRENDS, STRUCTURAL CHANGES, AND OUTLOOK TO 2030

This article examines the transformation of the Russian e-commerce market and develops forecast scenarios for its development through 2030. Digitalization is fundamentally changing retail, but the Russian e-commerce market is entering a phase where old growth drivers (connecting to new audiences) have been exhausted. This poses a pressing question for researchers and practitioners: what happens next? Faced with saturation, new regulations, and aggressive marketplace policies, the market requires not just a forecast, but a systemic understanding of its structural limits. The aim of the study is to identify key trends and structural shifts in Russian e-commerce and develop a scenario forecast for market development through 2030. The study's methodological framework includes economic and statistical analysis, trend extrapolation, and scenario modeling. The forecasting framework is based on the logistic saturation function (Verhulst curve). The methodology is implemented as a six-step calculation algorithm. The main results of the study: a stable, multidirectional trend in the number of online orders and the average order value was identified; market growth was found to be extensive; three e-commerce market development scenarios (baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic) were developed. The theoretical significance of the study lies in testing a logistic approach to forecasting e-commerce market development under conditions of saturation. The practical significance lies in the potential use of the resulting scenarios for strategic planning by market participants—sellers, marketplaces, investors, and regulators.