Green transformation in Finland and the Baltic States: comparative analysis of renewable energy transition in the road transport sector
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate the progress towards achieving sustainable development goals in the transport sector of the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – compared with Finland by identifying structural differences in renewable energy deployment and policy design that account for variation in transition outcomes over the period 2010–2024. Research methodology – The research employs a comparative analysis of Finland and the Baltic States, focusing on the transport sector’s transition towards Renewable Energy Sources (RES). The study examines historical, geographical, economic, and policy factors influencing sustainable transformation, using national and international datasets to assess progress over time and applying a structured indicator-based framework to ensure analytical comparability across countries. Findings – The results reveal significant variation in transition performance despite common EU regulatory obligations. Finland demonstrates the most advanced and consistent transition model, reaching a 20.3% share of RES in transport in 2024 while steadily reducing road transport GHG emissions. Estonia shows rapid recent improvement, whereas Latvia and Lithuania display slower structural change, with RES shares remaining below EU targets and transport emissions stagnating or increasing. The analysis shows that coordinated policies, regulatory stability, and alignment of fiscal incentives with infrastructure development drive effective transport decarbonisation. Research limitations – The study focuses solely on the road transport sector and selected countries. Practical implications – The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to improve renewable energy-based transport strategies. Originality/Value – The study contributes to understanding regional differences in sustainable transport development by linking transition indicators with comparative policy analysis. First published online 29 September 2026