Transitioning From Rice‐Wheat to Diversified Rice‐Based Rotations Enhances Rice Production and Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across Asia

Abstract

Rice‐wheat cropping systems underpin food security across Asia but also represent major sources of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Replacing wheat with diversified crop species to create alternative rice‐based cropping systems may become an effective strategy for sustainable production. However, how such alternatives influence rice production and GHG emissions at large spatial scales remains poorly understood. Here, we integrated compiled field observations with Random Forest modeling frameworks to generate spatial estimates at 0.5° resolution across Asia. All optimized models were statistically significant (p < 0.001) and showed good predictive performance, with testing R2 of 0.83 for rice yield, 0.63 for methane emission, and 0.70 for nitrous oxide emission. Spatial estimations demonstrated that complete replacement of rice‐wheat with alternative rice‐based cropping systems was associated with a modest increase in rice yield of 1.3% and a reduction in methane emission of 8.5%, while leading to a slight increase in nitrous oxide emission of 1.4%. Across Asia, these transitions could boost rice production by 16.8 million tons and reduce carbon emission by 82.4 million tons. The resulting improvements were expected to generate a yield benefit of 6.4 billion dollars and a net benefit of 8.6 billion dollars. These economic returns exhibited a highly concentrated pattern, with India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Thailand accounting for roughly three‐quarters of the total benefits. Our findings highlight the great potential of alternative rice‐based cropping systems to enhance rice productivity, mitigate GHG emissions, and improve economic viability, providing a promising pathway for sustainable agricultural transformation.