Risk Management of Regional Energy Security in the Context of Industrial Infrastructure Modernization in the Northwestern Federal District

Abstract

The article examines infrastructure risk management for the energy security of the NWFD regions under sanctions and fuel and energy complex modernization. The study aims to assess key risks and develop recommendations to improve power supply reliability. Based on indicative analysis, PJSC Rosseti Northwest investment programs, and national power system development plans up to 2031, a matrix of technical, technological, and geo-economic risks has been formed. The most vulnerable local power systems with grid depreciation rates of 62–68% were identified. The study proves a direct dependence of industrial power supply reliability in the NWFD on the stability of gas transportation infrastructure. It is substantiated that implementing domestic smart metering systems and distributed generation reduces economic vulnerability in border and Arctic territories, ensuring the strategic competitiveness of real sector enterprises.