Introduction to Energy Achieving a just energy transition. Part 1. The challenges

Abstract

The “Energy Transition” is occurring at different speeds and in different forms across different geographies, depending on local economic and societal pressures. World energy demand is continuing to rise, especially in the emerging economies of India, China and Africa, driven by population growth and economic development. Despite the rapid growth in the use of renewable energy resources, in all reasonable scenarios, there will still be a need for oil, gas and coal for the foreseeable future if we are to meet the social and economic expectations of the world’s growing population. The energy mix will certainly change as we try to reduce carbon emissions, but the speed and magnitude of that change will depend heavily on national economic priorities, political will and public opinion. Demand for certain earth metals will increase materially —a 200% increase in demand for aluminium, iron, lead and nickel, and a 1000% increase in demand for cobalt, lithium and manganese have been suggested. It is important to remember that renewable energy and other “cleaner” sources of energy also have environmental impacts. It is not necessarily the fuel that is the issue, but the environmental impacts of using it. The energy transition is not as simple as doing what is right for the planet. Governments, businesses, and people in fossil fuel-producing regions have already shown they will protect their economies despite the threat of environmental harm, and most of us seem reluctant to make the changes necessary to reduce our demand for energy and our reliance on the vast range of products made from hydrocarbons. A “just” transition requires us to do three things simultaneously —reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce energy poverty, and still satisfy the world’s growing energy demand. Is this possible? How fast can we realistically move towards a low-carbon future and still meet the world’s growing demand for energy? What are the key constraints on the rate of change? The “Energy Transition” is a huge responsibility, but also a huge opportunity, one in which we all have our part to play.