Realised Pooling, Pickup Reliability, and Mobility Dependence in Rural Demand-Responsive Public Transport: Evidence From a Swedish DRT Pilot

Abstract

Demand-responsive public transport (DRT) is increasingly used in rural and low-density areas, yet live-service evidence remains fragmented across pooling, pickup reliability, and mobility dependence. This study examines 67,782 booking records, including 44,855 completed records, from a stop-based Buss on Demand (BoD) service in two Swedish service areas. It combines descriptive analyses, user-clustered logistic regression models, and sensitivity analyses using a common observation window and alternative lateness thresholds, together with user-level evidence on driving-licence status, household-car availability, and reported travel alternatives. Demand was concentrated around local interchange and activity locations but also spanned lower-frequency origin-destination relations. Across three specifications, a one-standard-deviation increase in log-transformed trip distance was associated with 2.62-2.68 times the adjusted odds of realised pooling, while operational age was associated with 23% higher pooling odds. A one-standard-deviation increase in log-transformed booking lead time was associated with 32-43% higher pickup-lateness odds, whereas operational age was associated with 20-34% lower adjusted odds. Associations involving service area, trip distance, and sharing varied across observation windows or thresholds, showing sensitivity to specification. Users without a driving licence or household car used the service more frequently after accounting for unequal observation time, including after weighting for questionnaire-response differences. Reported alternatives included private motorised transport, active modes, and public or shared transport; some respondents stated that the trip would not otherwise have occurred. The findings show that pooling and pickup reliability should be interpreted in relation to trip characteristics, stage of operation, and observation period, while user-level evidence clarifies the service’s broader mobility role.