The clean energy trade war: assessing the climate costs of U.S. solar tariffs on China’s PV sector

Abstract

This study investigates how U.S. tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic (PV) products affect the embodied carbon emissions and decarbonization trajectory of China’s PV power sector. We couple a multi-regional input-output model, the Tapio decoupling model, and the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model. Historical data from 2000–2022 establish baseline trends, while three policy scenarios are simulated for 2023–2030, with a parameter sweep identifying critical tariff thresholds. Historical analysis reveals progressive decoupling (1% output growth drives only 0.5% embodied carbon increase). Under extreme tariffs (TTB), China’s PV embodied carbon rebounds by 4.9% cumulatively during 2025–2027, while U.S. emissions surge by 30.5%, reflecting a lose–lose outcome. A critical tariff threshold of 18–19% is identified, beyond which China’s PV emissions reverse from decline to growth. Although China regains strong decoupling by 2030, extreme tariffs still reduce cumulative emission reductions by 41%. These findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between tariff intensity and decarbonization outcomes, highlighting how geopolitical trade measures undermine climate goals and underscoring the need for climate-resilient international trade rules.