Jul 2026· Annual International Computer Software and Applications Conference· pp. 850-855· 0 citations· 22 references
Abstract
Multivariate time series forecasting that uses past observations to predict future data has been widely used in various application. Numerous methods have been developed, including deep learning based approaches. One of the most successful models is Mamba, which is based the state space models (SSMs). However, Mamba and its variants still face the challenges of long training times owing to its nonlinear operations. In this paper, we proposed a Fast Exponential Decay Approach (FEDA) to improve the training efficiency of Mamba. We have observed that the hidden states in the model are linear combinations of past inputs. Therefore, we attempted to use a fully connected layer to generate all the hidden states. Although a fully connected layer does not have a recurrent structure, based on the intuitive idea in multivariate time series forecasting that the influence of observations diminishes over time, we multiplied the weights of the fully connected layer by a time-dependent coefficient to emulate a recurrence-like behavior. We evaluated our model on various datasets, and the results show that our model achieves the performance comparable to the state of the art models, while significantly improving their training efficiency. More specifically, it reduces training time by 20% to 80% depending on the channels of the dataset.
Forecasting time series over long horizons is essential for proactive decision-making in many systems. Recent research has focused on transformer-based architectures, which capture long-range dependencies in sequential data. However, several studies show that simpler linear models can outperform transformers by avoiding overfitting during training. In this context, we present NeuroFlexMLP, a deep learning model for multivariate time series forecasting tasks. NeuroFlexMLP's key distinct feature is the adaptability to the diverse complexity of real-world time series, which is achieved, from the architecture standpoint, by adding non-linear residual blocks to a first linear block. This architectural design simplifies hyperparameter optimization, leading to accurate forecasts for various time series data types regardless of the lookback or prediction horizons, outperforming state-of-the-art (SOTA) models on challenging real-world datasets. Its Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) design ensures high computational efficiency, making it scalable for longer input sequences than transformer-based models. We validate NeuroFlexMLP for the LEO satellite beam hopping use case, where its lightweight design enables on-board deployment, and on state-of-the art AI datasets. Across all these benchmarks, NeuroFlexMLP achieves competitive accuracy over state-of-the-art models while providing an adaptive architecture that significantly reduces computational overhead. On the LEO beam hopping task, it achieves up to 35.9% MSE reduction over Informer, which translates into up to 28% lower provisioning cost under asymmetric cost models that penalize under-allocation more heavily than over-allocation.
P. F. Pérez, Claudio Fiandrino, Marco Fiore et al.· La Main· 0 citations
We propose a methodology based on the standard ReLU Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to make predictions and quantify their uncertainty. Classically, people rely on linear, non-linear, or non-parametric kernel methods to fit and then predict the time series. As the universal approximation ability was revealed for DNN, its application has become more and more popular for prediction tasks in various scientific areas. However, the corresponding uncertainty quantification has not been studied thoroughly. Particularly, the uncertainty in prediction will consist of two parts: (1) the future variability; (2) the estimation variability within training data. To capture both variabilities, we build the so-called pertinent prediction interval (PPI) with the DNN model estimator. We first explore the consistency property of the DNN estimator with beta-mixing dependent data. Subsequently, we show that the implied forward bootstrap series is still beta-mixing and possesses the same stationary distribution as the original time series in probability, which is a key condition to enable the PPI. Lastly, the desired PPI is built after imposing minimal conditions on the limiting distribution of predictive roots. Simulations and real-data analysis are deployed to challenge our approach with standard non-parametric methods.
The Decomposed Recurrent Neural Network (DeRNN) is proposed, which decouples global trend modeling from local fluctuation extraction via an asymmetric dual-track architecture and exhibits superior robustness against noise and distribution shifts.
Shanyun Qian· Poster Volume 0008 The 2026...· 0 citations
This study develops a rigorous, leakage-free forecasting framework for monthly Robusta coffee prices using historical observations from January 1975 to December 2025. A comprehensive set of explanatory variables is constructed from lagged coffee prices, moving averages, logarithmic returns, rolling volatility, and exogenous variables such as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the U.S. Dollar Index, and Brent crude oil prices. To ensure methodological fairness, all predictors are generated exclusively from information available at the forecast origin, and all competing models are evaluated under a unified expanding-window walk-forward validation framework. Seven forecasting models are compared: Naïve, Exponential Smoothing (ETS), ARIMA, ARIMAX, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Forecasting performance is evaluated using R2, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, while Taylor diagrams and the Diebold–Mariano test are employed to assess model agreement and differences in predictive accuracy. The results show that XGBoost achieves the highest forecasting accuracy (R2 = 0.956, RMSE = 0.264), followed closely by the Naïve (R2 = 0.954, RMSE = 0.271) and ARIMA (R2 = 0.954, RMSE = 0.270) benchmarks, whereas ARIMAX and ETS provide comparable performance and the deep learning models (LSTM and GRU) produce substantially larger prediction errors. Feature importance analysis further indicates that the first lag of coffee price is the dominant predictor, accounting for approximately 94% of the predictive gain in XGBoost. Overall, the findings demonstrate that rigorous leakage-free validation is essential for reliable forecasting research and that, for monthly Robusta coffee prices, increased model complexity does not necessarily yield superior predictive performance.
Dler H Kadir, D. Khalil, Azhin M. Khudhur· Forecasting· 0 citations
Long Horizon Time Series Forecasting (LHTSF) remains a challenging research problem due to the difficulty of producing reliable predictions over long forecasting horizons. Existing approaches mainly rely on recursive forecasting or multi-input multi-output (MIMO) strategies. Recursive methods are prone to error accumulation, while MIMO approaches may fail to adequately preserve temporal dependencies across forecast steps. In this study, we propose BlockMIMO, a block-based forecasting framework that provides a balance between these approaches. BlockMIMO divides the forecasting horizon into discrete blocks and predicts each segment sequentially while updating the input window with the generated blocks. This structure aims to preserve local temporal dependencies while mitigating error propagation in long-term forecasting. The proposed framework can be applied to different neural network architectures, and demonstrates superior performance on widely used multivariate time series datasets.
Ferayenur Bozkurt, Ceyhun E. Öztürk, G. Dogan et al.· Signal Processing and Commun...· 0 citations
It is argued that modern methods make progress by expanding the classical forecasting template: they allow more flexible dynamics, use larger information sets and training corpora, and represent richer predictive distributions, yet they often lack the inferential and structural tools that make classical models useful for testing, explanation, and policy analysis.