Modeling the current and future potential distribution of Leptoglossus zonatus (Hemiptera: Coreidae) under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Leptoglossus zonatus is an economically important leaf-footed bug across the Americas, damaging several high-value crops. We assessed its current and future potential distribution using an ensemble species distribution modelling framework calibrated with climatic and topographic predictors and evaluated via spatial block cross-validation to reduce spatial autocorrelation. Future projections were generated for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 using CMIP6 general circulation models (MIROC6 and MRI-ESM2-0) for mid-century (2041–2060) and late-century (2061–2080). Ensemble models showed high predictive performance and identified annual mean temperature and precipitation seasonality as dominant determinants of suitability. Projections indicated a spatial redistribution of climatic suitability, characterized by the expansion of marginally suitable areas and the contraction of moderate to highly suitable habitats, rather than a simple range expansion, especially under SSP5-8.5. Despite declining high-quality habitat, major agricultural regions currently affected by L. zonatus are expected to remain climatically suitable, albeit under increasingly suboptimal conditions. These results support climate-informed surveillance and adaptive pest management under ongoing climate change.