Is the contribution of glaciers and ice sheets to sea level rise slowing down?
Abstract
We report on the ice mass loss of the Antarctic and Greenland Icesheets and of the world Glaciers and ice caps from 2002 to 2026 using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions.In Greenland, we detect a slowdown in ice mass loss since 2012 due to lower melt runoff production caused by a succession of colder summers, especially in the southwest and northeast sectors. The mass loss averages 245+/-47 Gt/year for the period 2002-2026 with the acceleration in loss negligible after 2012 due to reduced surface melt, especially in the southwest and northeast. A disproportionate portion of the mass loss is driven by North Greenland which includes the two largest marine-based basins, which are most prone to rapid sea level rise.In Antarctica, we detect a slowdown in ice mass loss in 2019-2024 which was caused by an increase in accumulation of snowfall, especially in Queen Maud Land, which is unprecedented in the GRACE record. Increase in snowfall is also observed in Totem and Moscow and Wilkins land East Antarctica and in the Antarctic Peninsula. This short-lived mass gain in 2019-2024 mirrors a similar episode in 2004–2007 both in magnitude and duration, reflecting interannual variability in surface mass balance, not a reversal of long-term trends. A disproportionate portion of the mass loss is controlled by the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica and to a lesser extent by the Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica. Both ice sheets continue to lose ice, with no statistically significant acceleration during the GRACE era, confirming that Antarctica’s apparent recovery is a brief snowfall-driven pause within a persistent long-term decline.For the world Glacial and Ice Caps (GIC) we find a sustained mass loss of 296+/-30 Gt/year and an acceleration in mass loss of 6+/-2 Gt/year^2, the Arctic is still dominating the GIC mass loss signal and account for 71% of the total GIC mass loss. Ice sheet and Glaciers continue to have a major impact on sea level rise, the ice sheets show a relative loss in acceleration after 2012, but the longer record 1979-2025 shows an acceleration in mass loss.