Computational Modeling and Forecasting of Environmental Policy Indicators in the Context of Sustainable Development

Abstract

This paper proposes a computer-based approach to the integrated assessment and forecasting of environmental policy indicators in the context of sustainable development. The methodology is based on the construction of indices across the main dimensions (social, economic, environmental, and institutional) and their aggregation into an integral indicator reflecting the overall level of achievement of target benchmarks. To ensure the comparability of heterogeneous data, min-max normalization was applied. Forecasting was carried out using a linear trend model calibrated on data for 2015-2023. Given the uncertainty of the external environment, a scenario-based approach (pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic) was employed. The results of the study demonstrate a stable positive trend in the integral index, which, under the baseline scenario, reaches 0,53 in 2030, corresponding to a moderately high level of achievement of the sustainable development goals. The proposed approach provides a quantitative assessment of multidimensional processes, enables scenario forecasting, and forms an analytical basis for managerial decision-making in the field of environmental policy and sustainable development management.