Clean Energy, Carbon Emissions, and Green Economic Transition in China

Abstract

China’s continued expansion of clean energy makes it important to distinguish realized clean energy use from the physical deployment of renewable energy infrastructure. Within an energy–carbon–economy conceptual framework, this study examined whether greater clean energy development was associated with lower carbon emission intensity and a higher level of green economic transition, and whether physical photovoltaic deployment displayed the same regional pattern as realized clean energy consumption. Balanced panel data from 30 Chinese provinces for 2011–2023 were analyzed using two-way fixed effects models. Green economic transition was measured using the Global Malmquist–Luenberger green total factor productivity index. Potential channels through green technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading and differences across regional economic and resource conditions were also examined. Robustness was evaluated through sample exclusion, propensity score matching, and instrumental variable estimation. An extension combined remotely sensed photovoltaic deployment with surface solar radiation data for 2011–2022 to construct deployment-based and radiation-weighted indicators. The results showed that greater clean energy development was significantly associated with lower carbon emission intensity and a higher level of green economic transition, and these relationships remained robust. Green technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading provided evidence of possible transmission channels, while the estimated relationships differed across regional groups. However, the photovoltaic indicators did not reproduce the same lower-carbon and higher-green-transition pattern observed for consumption-based clean energy development. These results indicate that solar electromagnetic radiation conditions, photovoltaic infrastructure deployment, and realized clean energy utilization represent related but distinct stages of the energy transition. By linking remotely sensed photovoltaic conditions and solar radiation with regional environmental and economic outcomes, this study provides a system-level perspective connecting the physical foundations of photovoltaic energy conversion with low-carbon and green development.