LSTM-Based Time-Series Forecasting for Green Low-Carbon Data Center Energy Consumption: A Dual-Carbon Data Element Management Perspective

Abstract

Data centers already draw a fast-growing slice of global electricity, and operators cannot chase carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (“dual-carbon”) targets without knowing, ahead of time, how much power a facility is about to use. This paper builds an LSTM-based forecasting framework for data center energy consumption and places it inside a full-cycle dual-carbon data element management pipeline, one that tracks how operational data is collected, cataloged, shared across institutions, and eventually consumed by carbon-accounting services downstream. The forecaster itself is fairly simple to describe: a sliding-window preprocessing stage feeds a stacked LSTM encoder with attention-weighted temporal pooling, and a lightweight regression head predicts total facility power draw together with Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) one to twenty-four steps ahead. We test it on a twelve-month, five-minute-resolution operational dataset built to reproduce typical hyperscale load and cooling patterns, benchmarking against ARIMA, Support Vector Regression (SVR), a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network, and a vanilla single-layer LSTM. One-step-ahead Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) drops by 34.6% against ARIMA, 24.1% against SVR, 15.7% against GRU, and 9.8% against vanilla LSTM; an ablation study confirms that both attention pooling and multi-task PUE co-prediction contribute real, separable gains rather than overlapping ones. We also work through how this forecasting module behaves as a governed data product inside a cross-institution carbon data catalog, including downstream uses such as estimating carbon tariff exposure under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Taken together, the results suggest that pairing accurate short-horizon forecasting with structured data governance pays off on two fronts at once: operational efficiency and the auditability that low-carbon data center management increasingly requires.