Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Run-of-River Hydropower Generation: A Case Study of Mahipar Hydropower Plant

Abstract

Climate change is a significant environmental issue, characterized by increasing global temperature, variations in rainfall patterns, changes in precipitation timing and intensity, and a decline in snowfall. Run-of-river hydropower Plants are particularly sensitive to such changes, as electricity generation depends directly on consistent river discharge, and variations in river flow can significantly affect power output. This study evaluates the effects of climate change on energy generation at the Mahipar Hydropower Plant, a run-of-river system, by analyzing hydrological data from five monitoring stations located upstream of the plant intake over a multi-decadal period and comparing them with observed energy generation records. The results indicate a substantial decline in river discharge, with flow volume decreasing by approximately 51% over the study period, while energy generation has correspondingly decreased by about 37.5%. Furthermore, trend analysis suggests that river flow is likely to continue declining in the future, with an estimated reduction rate of 0.67 m3/s per year. These findings highlight the vulnerability of run-of-river hydropower systems to climate variability and underscore the need for adaptive strategies in hydropower planning and management.