TECHNO-ECONOMIC PLANNING OF 5G OPTICAL NETWORK EXPANSION: CAPEX OPTIMIZATION AND CAPACITY FORECASTING FOR TELECOM OPERATORS

Abstract

The deployment of 5G mobile networks is transforming the economics of optical transport, with the demand for capacity growth, low-latency services, cloud radio access network functions and enterprise digitisation all driving the need for dense, reliable and scalable fibre infrastructure. Saudi Arabian telecom operators are faced with the need to plan this expansion while managing capital expenditure, traffic uncertainty, energy costs, vendor evolution and Vision 2030 expectations for world class digital infrastructure. This review builds a techno-economic perspective for the 5G optical network expansion in Saudi industrial and commercial facilities with a focus on CAPEX optimization and capacity forecasting. The literature, standards-oriented reports, cost-modeling approaches and telecom-sector evidence are synthesised using a structured narrative review methodology, with the studies published between 2020 and 2025. The paper discusses how operators can combine traffic forecast, optical layer design, transceiver choice, WDM/PON architecture, fibre reuse, edge-cloud placement and investment phasing in a single planning model. It argues that CAPEX optimization should extend beyond the lowest initial build cost to incorporate capacity headroom, upgrade flexibility, operational resilience, energy impact and the cost of delayed expansion. The study proposes an integrated planning architecture and a rolling forecasting cycle designed for Saudi operators serving industrial cities, logistics hubs, smart districts, airports, petrochemical facilities, and high-density commercial zones. It finds that the financially disciplined 5G optical expansion depends on harmonised demand modelling, modular optical design, scenario-based sensitivity analysis, infrastructure sharing and governance that links engineering choices with business value.