THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE DYNAMICS OF LENDING TO THE REAL SECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Abstract

The impact of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy on the cost, volume, and structure of lending to the real sector in 2024–2026 is examined. The interest rate, balance sheet, and credit transmission channels are analyzed. It is established that changes in the key rate are most quickly passed on to the cost of short-term corporate loans, while long-term financing is less sensitive. The authors identified heterogeneity in access to borrowed resources, the concentration of portfolio growth among large companies, and the shielding effect of preferential programs. Scenario calculations of the fiscal cost of subsidies and an econometric model for assessing credit dynamics are presented.