Who holds, who harms? The effect of creditor composition on Tanzania’s financial stability

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of public debt composition by creditor type on financial stability in Tanzania, using quarterly data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Specifically, the analysis focuses on the roles of debt held by the central bank, commercial banks, pension funds and external creditors, with financial stability proxied by the capital adequacy ratio. Using an ARDL model, this study examines the long-run and short-run effects of public debt held by the central bank, commercial banks, pension funds and external creditors, while controlling for key macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange reserves. The results reveal that the identity of the creditor plays a critical role. In the long run, debt held by commercial banks is positively associated with financial stability. In contrast, debt held by external creditors and the central bank is linked to increased financial vulnerability. Pension fund holdings show no significant effect. Short-term findings suggest that sudden increases in commercial bank debt and declines in foreign reserves temporarily compromise financial stability. These results underscore the significance of public debt size and its holders, providing crucial insights for designing debt management strategies that foster macrofinancial resilience in Tanzania.