The Effect of Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inflation on Stock Prices, Moderated by CAR (A Study of the Banking Industry on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, 2021–2025)
Jul 2026· Journal of Education and Teaching Learning· pp. 1329-1338· 0 citations· 9 references
Abstract
This study aims to analyze and examine the influence of macroeconomic factors, consisting of Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inflation, on Stock Prices in banking sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2021–2025 period. Furthermore, this study also examines the role of the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) as a moderating variable in moderating the effects of interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation on these stock prices. The research method employed is an explanatory research approach with an ex post facto design. The population in this study comprises all banking companies listed on the IDX during the 2021–2025 period. The sampling technique utilizes a purposive sampling method based on specific criteria, resulting in a sample of 44 banking companies for observation. The data used are secondary data, including annual financial statements and official macroeconomic indicator data. The data analysis method applies Panel Data Regression Analysis with a Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach, processed using EViews 14 statistical software. The results of the study indicate that: 1) Interest Rates have a negative and significant effect on Stock Prices. 2) Exchange Rates have a positive and significant effect on Stock Prices. 3) Inflation has a positive and significant effect on Stock Prices. 4) CAR is able to moderate the effect of Interest Rates on Stock Prices, classified as a Pure Moderator. 5) CAR is unable to moderate the effect of Exchange Rates on Stock Prices, classified as a Predictor Moderator. 6) CAR is able to moderate the effect of Inflation on Stock Prices, classified as a Quasi Moderator in the banking industry on the IDX for the 2021–2025 period.
Macroeconomic fluctuations are among the primary factors influencing stock price movements in the capital market. However, previous studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the effects of inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on LQ45 stock prices during the post-pandemic period, indicating the need for further empirical investigation. This study aims to examine the effects of inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates on the stock prices of companies listed in the LQ45 Index of the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2020–2025. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, and Statistics Indonesia. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression after satisfying the classical assumption tests. The results reveal that inflation has a significant negative effect on stock prices, while interest rates also exert a significant negative influence. Conversely, the exchange rate has a significant positive effect on stock prices. Simultaneously, these macroeconomic variables significantly affect stock prices, with an Adjusted R² of 66.6%, indicating that the proposed model explains a substantial proportion of stock price variation. These findings highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability in supporting capital market performance. The study provides practical implications for investors in developing investment strategies based on macroeconomic indicators and for policymakers in designing monetary and economic policies that promote market stability and strengthen investor confidence.
This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, interest rates, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in the consumer goods industry sector and to examine the role of profitability as a moderating variable. This study employed a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia, and the Investment Coordinating Board during the 2019–2024 period. The sample was determined using a purposive sampling method, resulting in 25 food and beverage sub-sector companies with a total of 150 observations. The analytical techniques used were multiple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results show that exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on the CSPI, while interest rates and FDI have a negative and significant effect on the CSPI. Simultaneously, all independent variables significantly affect the CSPI. Meanwhile, profitability is unable to moderate the effect of exchange rates, interest rates, and FDI on the CSPI, indicating that the influence of macroeconomic variables on the CSPI is direct. These findings suggest that movements in the CSPI of the consumer goods industry sector are more dominantly influenced by external macroeconomic factors than by internal company factors. This study strengthens the relevance of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in explaining the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the capital market and provides implications for investors, companies, and policymakers in understanding stock market dynamics in Indonesia.
Muhammad Taufiq, Ronny Malavia Mardani, Mohammad Bastom· EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmia...· 0 citations
Stock price movements among basic materials sector issuers on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) are influenced by internal corporate financial conditions and macroeconomic shifts. This study examines the impact of Return on Equity (ROE), Current Ratio (CR), Earnings per Share (EPS), exchange rates, and economic growth on stock prices in this sector from 2021 to 2025. Utilizing a quantitative approach, secondary panel data were collected from official reports published by the IDX, Bank Indonesia, and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). Purposive sampling selected 27 companies, yielding 128 observations analyzed via the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) in EViews 12. The empirical findings indicate that ROE does not significantly affect stock prices. Conversely, CR, EPS, and the exchange rate significantly and negatively influence stock prices, while economic growth exhibits a significant positive impact. Jointly, all independent variables simultaneously affect stock prices, with an R-squared (R2) value of 97.55%. These insights indicate that equity valuation in this industry is highly responsive to liquidity, per-share earnings, currency depreciation, and overall economic progress. Consequently, investors and executives must evaluate these metrics to optimize strategies.
Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of interest rates on investment decisions in banking sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
Research Method: This research employs an associative quantitative approach using secondary data sourced from annual financial reports on the IDX and the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate. Utilizing a saturated sampling technique, the entire population of 46 banking companies was selected as the sample. Data analysis was conducted using simple linear regression and hypothesis testing via IBM SPSS.
Results and Discussion: The test results demonstrate that interest rates do not have a significant effect on investment decisions, which are proxied by the Price-Earnings Ratio (PER) (sig. value 0.558 > 0.05; R² = 0.002). This indicates that investors respond more to the company's internal fundamental factors than to fluctuations in the macroeconomic benchmark interest rate.
Implications: These findings recommend that investors prioritize analyzing a company's financial fundamentals when making investment choices. Future studies are advised to include other macroeconomic variables or specific financial performance indicators.
Originality: The novelty of this research lies in its comprehensive examination of the entire banking sector population on the IDX, specifically using PER as a proxy for investment decisions amid recent benchmark interest rate dynamics.
Nissa Septiyani Haris, I. Irwansyah, Lilis Marlina· Advances in Management &...· 0 citations
This study analyzes the influence of the Rate of Money Supply (M2), BI interest rates, and exchange rates on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2020–2024 period. Applying a descriptive quantitative approach through multiple linear regression analysis, this study processes secondary data in the form of 60 monthly observations obtained from the official websites of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The results of the partial test (t-test) indicate that the rate of money supply (M2) and interest rates have a positive and significant effect on the JCI, indicating that increased economic liquidity can encourage investment activity in the capital market. In contrast, the Rupiah exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the JCI, where exchange rate depreciation tends to suppress stock market performance.
Handreana Rheymanda Setiawan, M. Y. Mahadianto, M. Mardi· Asian Journal of Management...· 0 citations
This study aims to analyze the determinants of dividend policy and their implications for stock returns among companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2019–2024 period. Specifically, the study examines the effects of Return on Assets (ROA), Current Ratio (CR), Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER), Sales Growth (SG), and Firm Size (SIZE) on Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), as well as the impact of DPR on stock returns. The research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the annual financial reports of dividend-paying companies listed on the IDX. The sample consists of 822 firm-year observations selected through purposive sampling. Data analysis was conducted using path analysis with multiple regression models, supported by classical assumption tests including normality, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation tests. The results indicate that during the overall period of 2019–2024, ROA, DER, and SG significantly and negatively affect DPR, while CR and SIZE do not have significant effects. Furthermore, CR negatively affects stock returns, whereas SG and DPR have positive and significant effects on stock returns. The findings also reveal that the relationships among financial performance, dividend policy, and stock returns vary across pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. Overall, dividend policy plays an important mediating role in influencing stock returns, particularly during and after periods of financial uncertainty. These findings provide valuable insights for investors, corporate managers, and policymakers in formulating dividend and investment decisions under different economic conditions.
Baliyah Munadjat, Hari Gursida, Yohanes Indrayono· Multidisciplinary Indonesian...· 0 citations
