Solar Irradiance Forecasting in Data-Sparse Tropical Regions Using a Novel Spatial Site-Adapted WRF–LSTM Hybrid Approach

Abstract

Accurate solar irradiance forecasting in data-sparse tropical regions remains challenging due to complex terrain, rapid convective cloud formation, and limited ground-based observations. This study introduces a novel hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (10 km) with station-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) bias correction, complemented by three innovative spatial site-adaptation strategies to produce spatially coherent short-term irradiance fields. The hybrid system leverages hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data from eight BMKG stations (2023) alongside GK2A satellite cloud information to dynamically correct WRF forecast biases, capturing nonlinear cloud–irradiance interactions that standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models fail to resolve. Results indicate that the hybrid WRF–LSTM system reduces 1–3-day root mean square error (RMSE) by 120–127 W/m2 and relative RMSE (rRMSE) by 26%, while lowering relative mean bias error (rMBE) from 31–36% (raw WRF) to 2.5–4.1%, with the largest improvements observed in regions exhibiting initially high WRF errors. Among the spatial adaptation methods, the average-based scheme minimizes RMSE but exhibits weak spatial coherence; the distance-weighted scheme achieves the strongest spatial consistency with regional reanalysis (R2 = 0.37) with minimal bias; and the elevation-based scheme ensures full-domain coverage with moderate skill. This study demonstrates that the integration of dynamical NWP modeling with LSTM-based bias correction and tailored spatial transfer strategies provides a robust, scalable approach for short-term solar irradiance forecasting and resource mapping in tropical environments. The proposed framework offers practical implications for PV power forecasting, grid management, and renewable energy planning in regions where observational data are sparse and the terrain is highly heterogeneous.