Fresh insights on climate change in MINT economies: The heterogeneous effect of technological adoption, economic globalization and electrification from the perspective of MMQR approach
Abstract
In the face of accelerating global warming, climate change poses existential risks to emerging economies, particularly the MINT nations (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey), which face dual challenges of sustaining economic growth and mitigating environmental degradation. This study offers novel insights into the climate change dynamics of MINT economies by investigating the roles of technological adoption, economic globalization, and electrification in influencing greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2008–2021. Drawing on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, the study leveraged on the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to uncover the heterogeneous effects across the central-emissions distribution. To ensure robustness and address endogeneity concerns, the Quantile Regression with block‑bootstrap, the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimations were conducted, with consistent results confirming that of the primary estimator. The results revealed that electrification consistently elevates emissions across all central quantiles, reflecting the continued reliance on fossil-fuel-based power generation. Economic globalization compresses cross-country emission, but does not significantly shift median emission levels, indicating its role in harmonizing, rather than reducing, environmental outcomes. Technological adoption exhibits a positive effect on composite greenhouse-gas emissions at upper quantiles but flips to a negative (albeit insignificant) sign for pure CO₂, suggesting nascent decarbonization benefits as clean-tech diffusion deepens. Consistent with the EKC hypothesis, GDP enters positively and GDP² negatively when using composite GHGs, whereas pure CO₂ emissions do not yet display an income turning point. Policy recommendations include renewable-focused electrification strategies, binding environmental provisions in trade agreements, and income-tied fiscal incentives to hasten the EKC turning point.