Conceptual Factor-Criteria Framework and Qualimetric Approach for Assessing National Economic Resilience
Abstract
Background. Amidst the increasing frequency and scale of multidimensional shocks, assessing the resilience of the national economy has become particularly relevant. A resilience assessment system that integrates economic, structural, social, financial, and institutional characteristics and reflects their dynamic interactions in response to shocks must be developed. Purpose. The study aims to develop a system of indicators for assessing the resilience of the national economy based on a qualimetric approach and to provide an empirical application of selected indicators. Findings. The study uses a qualimetric approach, which involves identifying the parameters, factors, and criteria of the system being assessed and assigning weighting coefficients to develop an Integrated Resilience Indicator (IRI). The dynamics of normalised indicators for the EU over the 2022–2024 period were analysed. The results showed that in 2022, the EU economy was under severe pressure from the energy crisis and double-digit inflation (IRI=0.58), reflected in a low shock-absorption sub-index (A=0.46). In 2023 (IRI=0.59), stabilisation was observed: despite economic stagnation, the transformation (T) and adaptation (AD) sub-indices rose, driven by digitalisation and the accelerated transition to renewable energy. In 2024 (IRI = 0.68), there was a significant surge in resilience. The main drivers were the decline in inflation to the target level of 2.6%, record-low unemployment (6.0%), and strong performance in digital and green transformation. Implications. An approach to assessing national economic resilience based on the factor-and-criterion structuring of indicators is a prerequisite for developing evidence-based, proactive economic policy. The proposed calculation algorithm enables a systematic "screening" of vulnerable segments of the economy. Decomposing the composite index into four sub-indices (A, AD, RC, T) makes it possible to pinpoint the source of a problem and determine whether a decline in resilience stems from fiscal and monetary factors or from a slowdown in structural transformations.