Borey is a high-resolution regional modeling and operational forecasting system for the Barents and Kara Seas. It combines WRF for the atmosphere, NEMO-SI3 for the ocean and sea ice, and WW3 for waves on approximately 3--6\,km grids, and generates daily forecasts to 72 hours. We describe the model chain and production workflow and present an accompanying hourly hindcast of surface conditions from August 2015 to August 2023. The archive provides aligned atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and wave fields for regional marine studies and a baseline for evaluating the operational system. Comparisons with observations and observation-based products show that Borey captures much of the variability in near-surface atmospheric conditions and ocean temperature. Skill in the evaluated WRF, NEMO, and SI3 forecasts changes only modestly across the three-day window. The main limitations are persistent rather than rapidly growing errors: sea surface temperature is generally too cold, sea ice concentration and occurrence are overestimated during seasonal retreat, and significant wave height is underestimated. Borey should therefore complement observation-constrained products. The planned public release will provide hourly surface fields, native grids, provenance information, and validation outputs for regional analysis, model development, and carefully evaluated data-driven forecasting and data-assimilation research.
High-resolution projections of near-surface winds are crucial for ocean circulation and sea level studies in Southeast Asia, a region characterized by complex coastlines and monsoon variability. This study evaluates the added value of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 9 km resolution, driven by two CMIP6 global climate models (EC-Earth3 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), to simulate 10 m wind climatology over the Southeast Asian seas. Comparisons were made against ERA5 reanalysis and the parent CMIP6 GCMs, focusing on seasonal mean patterns, interannual variability, and the annual cycle. The WRF simulations demonstrate substantial improvement in capturing the spatial structures of monsoonal winds and regional circulation features. Future wind projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios reveal seasonally and spatially heterogeneous trends. The downscaled models project strengthening of winter monsoon winds over the Southeast Asian seas and a weakening of summer monsoon flows, with implications for upper ocean dynamics and regional sea level patterns. The leading modes of variability from EOF analysis indicate basin-wide wind anomalies modulated by periodic signals at ~1 year and ~2–7 years, likely driven by ENSO and the Asian monsoon. The power spectra of principal components reveal that internal variability persists across scenarios, though with increased signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) in the WRF projections toward the end of the 21st century.
B. J. Ona, S. Raghavan, Boyaj Alugula et al.· Atmosphere· 0 citations
This paper describes an ensemble of global atmosphere reference simulations covering the period 1980 to 2023 produced with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The resulting dataset consists of 6-hourly three-dimensional global outputs from higher- and lower-resolution configurations of the IFS, which have average horizontal grid spacings of ~9 km (one ensemble member) and ~28 km (ten ensemble members), respectively. The atmosphere is constrained by high-resolution satellite-based estimates of daily mean sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration and time-evolving external climate forcings, including observed greenhouse gas and estimated aerosol concentrations. These data were produced as part of the European Eddy-Rich Earth System Models (EERIE) project and will serve as a reference for corresponding ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations and idealised sensitivity experiments. We have made this dataset publicly available and expect it to be a valuable resource for scientific research and other applications that extend beyond the lifetime of the EERIE project.
M. Aengenheyster, Christopher D. Roberts, Razvan Aguridan et al.· Scientific Data· 1 citation
Abstract. This study presents a new set of high-resolution global climate simulations conducted with the EC-Earth3 model, including a 350 year pre-industrial, followed by historical (1850–2014) and future (2015–2100, SSP2-4.5) simulations. The model features a horizontal resolution of ∼ 40 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean. The high-resolution EC-Earth3 (EC-Earth3-HR) is compared to the standard-resolution version used in CMIP6 to assess the impact of increased resolution on the representation of key climate variables, focusing particularly on the Arctic and North Atlantic regions. The high-resolution model aligns more closely with reanalysis data, particularly for global mean surface temperature and sea surface temperature. Both model resolutions exhibit similar biases in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and salinity, and in Arctic sea ice concentration, although the higher-resolution version shows regional improvements. The EC-Earth3-HR model captures the observed AMOC variability in the early 2000s, along with the trend and rapid loss event in Arctic sea ice. For future projection under SSP2-4.5, the high-resolution model projects a nearly ice-free Arctic by 2040 – earlier than the standard-resolution model – while simulating less Arctic warming and a more pronounced weakening of the AMOC. We also introduce a framework to diagnose deep-water formation (DWF) in the Labrador, Irminger, and Greenland Seas and to quantify their regional contributions to the AMOC. Applying this framework, we find that projected DWF weakens across all regions, with the largest reduction in the Labrador Sea, making it the dominant contributor to long-term AMOC weakening. By 2100, diagnosed DWF ceases in the Labrador Sea, compared with declines of 62 % in the Greenland Sea and 13 % in the Irminger Sea.
M. Karami, T. Koenigk, Shiyu Wang et al.· Earth System Dynamics· 1 citation
