Transformation of the investment logic of Russian agricultural enterprises in the context of sanctions pressure, taking into account regional peculiarities and innovative approaches
Abstract
The article examines the transformation of the investment logic of Russia’s agro-industrial complex under the impact of sanctions pressure and import substitution, whereby project attractiveness is increasingly determined not by short-term marginality but by supply chain sustainability, technological independence, and risk manageability over a 5–10 year horizon. The duality of sectoral dynamics is demonstrated: with agricultural output of 8.903 trillion rubles in 2024, a 3.2% decline in physical volume was recorded, whereas in 2025 output rose to 10.628 trillion rubles with real growth of 4.9%, necessitating consideration of the gap between nominal and real indicators in configuring working capital and debt covenants. Export revenue moderately declined in 2023–2025, yet the role of high value-added products increased, interpreted as a more sustainable revenue profile compared to raw material supplies. Amid stringent monetary policy parameters, investment decisions shift toward projects reducing the risk premium and enhancing cash flow predictability. Quantitative import substitution benchmarks include the domestic seed share rising to 69.3% in 2025 and reduced seed imports, simultaneously mitigating currency-logistics risks while raising demands on breeding quality and technological discipline. Regional heterogeneity is formalized via an integral investment profile index, with logistics, climatic volatility, innovation maturity, and state support intensity in CAPEX contributing most to the aggregate score. Scenario DCF valuation of processing modernization shows NPV potentially turning negative under sanctions stress but efficiency gains with innovative reinforcement. Portfolio assessment of initiatives confirms the financial viability of a «sustainability economy» even at elevated discount rates, enabling the proposed indicators as a practical template for investment screening, credit analysis, and state support calibration.