Agriculture in Türkiye's 2024–2030 Climate Change Policies: Ecological Modernization or Ecological Transformation?

Abstract

The self-reinforcing feedback between climate change and agricultural production is deepening the crisis in both areas. Climate change directly affects agricultural production and increases sectoral vulnerabilities. Conversely, when agricultural production is not carried out under appropriate conditions and methods, it further exacerbates climate change. The global food system, responsible for about one-third of global emissions due to high levels of carbon and methane, is a major source of climate change. Türkiye is among the countries that most distinctly experience the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector, owing to its physical and structural conditions. The increasing frequency of droughts, declining groundwater levels, heavy rainfall, late frosts, floods, and forest fires exert serious pressure on agricultural production, posing a significant threat to food security in Türkiye. Therefore, for Türkiye, policies and strategies developed by taking into account the intricate relationship between climate change and the agricultural sector and envisioning structural transformations in agriculture consistent with climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives, are of critical importance. In this context, the study aims to examine what kind of transformation Türkiye's climate policy envisions for the agricultural sector in terms of food security, and whether this transformation is based on ecological modernization or ecological transformation. For this purpose, the strategy and action plans that shape Türkiye's climate policy are subjected to content analysis using MAXQDA24 Analytics Pro, and the findings are discussed from a critical perspective.