Simulation Analysis of Influencing Factors Assessment for Emergency Materials Supply Chain Resilience Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

In light of the intricate dynamics and uncertain risk parameters inherent in the emergency materials supply chains, enhancing the resilience of these supply chains can substantially mitigate disruption risks and facilitate the rapid recovery of affected cities. This study identifies key metrics emblematic of supply chain resilience within emergency material, spanning five critical resilience dimensions: flexibility, agility, reconfigurability, visibility, and collaboration capability. Employing the Combined Weighting and system dynamics (SD), we formulate a resilience simulation model specific to these supply chains. Utilizing the 2025 extreme rainstorm disaster in Guizhou Province as a case study, we forecast the trajectory of supply chain resilience over a four‐year span and simulate the resilience variations in response to diverse variable magnitudes. Our findings reveal a consistent upward resilience trend over the four‐year period. Moreover, the resilience stature of the emergency materials supply chain exhibits variability under distinct variable shifts. Of all the subsystems, the most reactive secondary factors encompass government response speed, responsiveness of information flows and rapid procurement process setup.