Perceived Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in Coastal Lagos Evidence from Badagry Local Government Area

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to agricultural productivity, particularly in coastal communities where rising temperatures, rainfall variability, flooding and other environmental changes can disrupt agricultural activities and livelihoods. This study examined the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity among farmers in Badagry Local Government Area, Lagos State, Nigeria. Specifically, the study assessed farmers’ perceptions of climate change, identified major climate-related environmental changes affecting agriculture, examined their effects on agricultural productivity, and assessed farmers’ adaptation strategies. A quantitative cross-sectional survey design was adopted. Data were collected from farmers using structured questionnaires, with 356 valid responses obtained from 384 questionnaires administered, representing a 92.7% response rate. Data were analysed using frequencies, percentages, means, standard deviations, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation and multiple regression at a 5% significance level. The findings showed that farmers had a high perception of climate change (grand mean = 4.05), with increased temperature, irregular rainfall and unpredictable rainfall timing being prominent observations. Irregular rainfall (M = 4.24) and flooding (M = 4.18) were the major climate-related environmental challenges. Climate change was also perceived to negatively affect agricultural productivity (grand mean = 4.10), particularly through reduced crop yields, crop damage and disruption of planting seasons. A significant relationship existed between climate change and agricultural productivity impacts (r = 0.624, p < .001), while climate-related environmental factors jointly explained 50.6% of the variation in productivity impacts (R² = 0.506, p < .001). Changing planting dates and crop diversification were the most commonly adopted adaptation strategies. The study concludes that climate change significantly threatens agricultural productivity in Badagry and recommends strengthened climate information services, flood management, irrigation, extension support and climate-smart agricultural technologies. Keywords: climate change, agricultural productivity, coastal agriculture, farmers’ adaptation, Badagry