Long-term variations of cyclone-influenced exchange flows in the coastal Arctic in 2000-2025

Abstract

Summertime synoptic weather regulates Arctic land-ocean exchange through meteorological tides during the ice-free period, when the predominantly easterly regime of the Beaufort High is punctuated by episodic Arctic cyclones, changing coastal winds to westerlies. We analyze wind-driven exchange flows in a northern Alaska lagoon using a 26-year reconstruction (2000-2025) validated by new in situ observations and FVCOM simulations. Phase-space EOF analysis of ERA5 data links deep cyclonic anomalies to 89% of Extreme Eastward Throughflow (EET) events (24 of 27). Coastal easterly occurrence frequencies show a consistent decrease (up to 38.3% at>10 m/s) while low-to-moderate westerly occurrence frequencies increase by up to 30.9% but decrease by 40.6% at extreme westerly wind speeds (>10 m/s). Offshore ERA5 wind occurrence frequencies increased, with extreme offshore events (>10 m/s) increasing by 82.4%. Local ASOS observations reveal a near-monotonic ~88% reduction in atmospheric forcing variability (East-West Wind Excursion variability drops from 2.98X10^4 to 0.35X10^4 km). The In-Out Flow Excursion variability declines steadily by 70% from 1.40X10^3 to<0.40X10^3 km, while the positive (outward) flow ratio variability contracts steadily from 7.4% to below 2.2%. Extreme Westward Throughflow (EWT) events were infrequent, but were concentrated in the most recent period, with five of six events occurring in 2022-2024 and one in 2013. These results indicate that the summertime coastal regime remains predominantly easterly, but exhibits progressively lower variability, while the wind distribution shifts toward more frequent low-to-moderate westerlies. This evolution of weather-forcing state may impact flushing and biogeochemical connectivity of Arctic lagoon ecosystems.