Mediterranean Warming Amplified the Convective Environment During the December 13, 2024 Severe Thunderstorm at Rome–Fiumicino Airport

Abstract

Extreme convective events are posing increasing challenge to aviation. On December 13, 2024, an intense thunderstorm caused severe operational disruption at Rome–Fiumicino Airport. Here we analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions associated with this event using a conditional analogue‐based framework applied to ERA5 reanalysis data. We identify synoptic and mesoscale patterns similar to the one observed during the event over the satellite era (1979 to present) and compare the associated environmental conditions between a counterfactual past period (1979–2000) and a factual present one (2002–2023). While the dynamical structure of the circulation patterns remains mostly unchanged, the thermodynamic background has evolved toward warmer conditions, with increased near‐surface air and sea surface temperatures over the Mediterranean basin. These changes are accompanied by increases in precipitation, convective instability, and wind shear. Observations at Rome–Fiumicino Airport further indicate stronger wind gusts, increased dew‐point temperature and reduced visibility during analogue situations in recent decades. Our results suggest that warming background conditions may amplify the convective impacts of otherwise similar synoptic and mesoscale patterns, increasing the potential for disruptive weather affecting Mediterranean aviation hubs.