Digital Engagement in Geopolitical Crises: A Comparative Analysis of Message Attributes on Instagram and X During the Capture of Nicolás Maduro

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of digital engagement during geopolitical crises, using the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on 3 January 2026 as a case study. The aim is to identify which message attributes drive audience interaction and how their effects vary across platforms with distinct communicative architectures. A corpus of 1000 posts collected during the seven days following the event was assembled, evenly distributed between Instagram and X and between Spanish and English, and coded through quantitative content analysis. The effects of news frames, responsibility attribution, message type, format, and source type on likes and comments on both platforms—as well as reposts on X—were estimated using negative binomial regression. Findings reveal that both platforms operate as distinct ecosystems: on X, conflict and legality frames, shock-driven messages, and video amplify interaction, whereas on Instagram, humor emerges as the only robust positive driver. Citizen and influencer accounts substantially outperform institutional sources, explicit responsibility attribution significantly reduces participation—challenging the applicability of Situational Crisis Communication Theory—and Spanish-language posts concentrate higher levels of engagement.