Long-Term Trend Analysis of Wheat Area, Production and Productivity in Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

Wheat is one of the most important food-grain crops and plays a vital role in food security in India. Madhya Pradesh has emerged as one of the leading wheat-producing states of the country in the last few decades. The study deals with long-term trends in wheat area, production and productivity in Madhya Pradesh for the period from 1956–57 to 2024–25. The analysis is based on secondary time-series data collected from official government sources. Descriptive statistics, box plots and seven different trend models (Linear, Logarithmic, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Growth and Exponential) were used to study the long-term trend of wheat area, production and productivity in Madhya Pradesh. The analysis showed an upward trend in all three indicators during the period of study. Among the fitted models, the Cubic model had the best predictive performance with Adjusted R² values of 0.6901, 0.9434 and 0.9420 for area, production and productivity, respectively. This increase in wheat production was due to the slow expansion of land under cultivation and remarkable improvements in crop productivity, especially since the 1990s. This improvement can be attributed to extensive adoption of improved varieties of wheat, improved irrigation facilities, improved crop management practices and technological advancement in agriculture. These results reaffirm the consistent increase in wheat production in Madhya Pradesh and call for policies for sustainable intensification, efficient use of resources, climate resilience and environmental sustainability for long-term food security.