Climate-Driven Wildfire Risk in the Sumapaz Páramo, Colombia: Coupling the Fire Weather Index with Spatiotemporal Analysis for Sustainable Ecosystem Management

Abstract

Páramo ecosystems are among the most biodiverse and hydrologically critical landscapes on Earth, yet their long-term sustainability is increasingly threatened by climate-driven wildfires. Vegetation Cover Fires (VCFs) in these high-altitude environments degrade carbon stocks, disrupt freshwater regulation, and undermine biodiversity conservation goals central to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 13, 15, and 6). Between 2001 and 2023, 128 fire events consumed approximately 815 ha in the Sumapaz locality (the world’s largest continuous páramo), representing 64.9% of all fires recorded across Bogotá’s 20 localities. Despite this disproportionate ecological and social impact, no spatially explicit, operational risk management framework has been available for the region, representing a critical sustainability governance gap. This study addresses that gap by proposing an integrated climate-adaptive risk assessment and management strategy based on (i) the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System Fire Weather Index (FWI), derived from ERA5 reanalysis climate data; (ii) spatial and temporal hotspot analysis of MODIS FIRMS active fire detections; and (iii) IDEAM’s multi-component vulnerability and threat scoring protocol. Spatial data were processed using ArcGIS, and FWI sub-indices were computed for each month of the 2001–2023 period. The FWI averaged 0.78 (low danger) across the study period yet peaked at 13.7 in February 2010 (moderate-to-high danger), consistent with the year of highest recorded fire activity (19 events). High- and very high-risk areas (3.70% combined) coincide with slopes >25%, the presence of the invasive and pyrogenic Ulex europaeus, and proximity to populated and agricultural lands. This study concludes with a three-pillar risk management framework—risk knowledge, risk reduction, and disaster management—providing spatially targeted, operationally viable strategies for local and institutional actors that directly support the sustainable conservation of páramo ecosystem services (water supply, carbon sequestration, biodiversity). The framework is designed to be updatable on a monthly basis using freely available ERA5 data, enabling continuous adaptive governance of wildfire risk as a contribution to long-term territorial sustainability. Limitations regarding MODIS detection uncertainty, ERA5 spatial resolution in complex terrain, and the need for probabilistic modeling are explicitly acknowledged.