A novel statistical framework based on representation Multi-task Learning (MTL) and an item response theory model is proposed, and overall and domain-specific LLM traits are defined through an Item Response Theory (IRT) model and an MTL approach to estimate these traits from item-level response data.
Abstract
Quantifying and evaluating the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a fundamental challenge in modern data science and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we consider LLM evaluation based on their performance across items in multiple benchmark domains (e.g., mathematical reasoning and coding) within a leaderboard framework. Our goal is to address two core questions: (1) How do we derive more accurate domain-specific scores by borrowing information across domains? and (2) How do we define and estimate an overall score that aggregates performance across multiple domains? To solve these problems, we propose a novel statistical framework based on representation Multi-task Learning (MTL) and an item response theory model. Specifically, we define overall and domain-specific LLM traits through an Item Response Theory (IRT) model, and propose an MTL approach to estimate these traits from item-level response data. We develop a computationally efficient estimator and establish its minimax optimality under certain asymptotic regimes. This framework provides a rigorous measurement foundation for systematic LLM evaluation. We conduct extensive simulations, demonstrating the superior performance of the proposed method over competing methods. Crucially for the Applications and Case Studies section, we apply the proposed framework to MMLU response data from the Hugging Face Open LLM Leaderboard, covering 4,272 LLMs and 13,232 items across 56 subjects. The empirical analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in domain size and difficulty, together with strong positive cross-domain dependence, highlighting the practical value and substantive insights generated by our approach.
StatFormBench is introduced, a benchmark built from five cross-domain statistics textbooks and a data science case library, covering diverse problem types, data representations, and scenario styles, and no model performs consistently best across the two subtasks.
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