Spatiotemporal Coupling and Influencing Factors of Land Use Carbon Emissions and Ecosystem Service Value in China

Abstract

Research on the coupling coordination relationship between land–use carbon emissions (LUCE) and ecosystem service value (ESV) is vital for achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals and advancing ecological civilization. Applying the carbon emission coefficient method, equivalent factor method, coupling coordination degree model, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, this study examined spatiotemporal patterns of land–use changes, carbon emissions per unit area (ACE), and ecosystem service value per unit area (AESV) across China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2000 to 2020, along with their coupling relationship and driving forces. Results showed that grassland, forest, and cropland accounted for more than 70% of China’s land area, with a total land–use conversion area of 1.42 × 106 km2. ACE increased while AESV generally decreased, both displaying strong spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration. The average Dagum Gini coefficients were approximately 0.70 for ACE and 0.58 for AESV. Coupling coordination degree mostly fluctuated around 0.20, rising initially and then falling, with distinct spatial variations in coordinated development types. Population density, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and average elevation were negatively correlated with the synergistic effect between LUCE and ESV, whereas GDP density, annual precipitation, and average slope showed positive correlations. These findings provided theoretical support for formulating scientific land–use policies, optimizing carbon emission management, and implementing effective ecological protection measures.