Where Can a Decision Model Diagnose HVAC Faults? Reasoning Demand, Physical Representation, and Robustness Under Shift

Abstract

Artificial intelligence supports building operations in several forms, each with its own barrier. Expert rules must be tuned for every system, supervised models need labeled data that buildings rarely record, and language models return free text that requires human-in-the-loop checking, since their stated confidence is unreliable. A newer kind of pretrained model, here called a decision model, returns a probability for every allowed answer, so one model could serve many decisions without training. This study answers three open questions for fault diagnosis in heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems: which decisions such a model can make, what input it needs, and whether its probabilities hold when conditions change. On 128 fault days from four public datasets of real equipment, faults are graded by the reasoning their diagnosis demands, with data given raw, as physical features, or with Brick topology. The decision model Jev, open language models, and a supervised model face nine tests that change season, control configuration, or building. Given physical features, Jev and the larger open model diagnosed faults whose evidence one feature carries, but not faults that need operating context. Under shift they kept their accuracy and calibration, while the supervised model lost 0.33 macro-F1 yet led or tied within a building. Their probabilities still needed correction, and detection was weak. The study maps which faults a decision model can diagnose and from what input, and supports a division of work in which code computes the physics and the model ranks candidate faults for an operator.