Indonesia's Strategic Autonomy in the China–Indonesia Electric Vehicle Cooperation: Balancing National Interest, Energy Transition, and Great Power Rivalry

Abstract

Indonesia occupies an exceptional geopolitical position in the global electric vehicle transition: it holds the world's largest nickel reserves, commands Southeast Asia's most populous consumer market, and pursues an officially "free and active" (bebas dan aktif) foreign policy doctrine that resists formal alignment with any great power. The emergence of China as the dominant partner in Indonesia's EV ecosystem—through investment by CATL, Tsingshan, BYD, and Wuling—challenges the practical operationalization of this non-alignment principle. This article examines Indonesia's strategic autonomy in managing its EV cooperation with China, interrogating whether Jakarta's resource nationalism and economic diplomacy tools are sufficient to maintain meaningful agency within an asymmetrically structured partnership. Drawing on middle power theory, the strategic autonomy framework, and two-level game theory, and employing a qualitative single-country case study with comparative reference to Malaysia, the article finds that Indonesia's strategic autonomy in the China–Indonesia EV cooperation framework is real but constrained. Jakarta has successfully used nickel down streaming to attract transformative Chinese investment and accelerate EV industrial development; however, the concentration of Chinese capital, technology, and market offtake across the supply chain creates structural vulnerabilities that formal non-alignment rhetoric cannot resolve. The article introduces the concept of "instrumental multilateralism" as an original theoretical contribution and develops policy recommendations for an EV strategic autonomy doctrine combining technology transfer conditionality, domestic innovation investment, multilateral partner engagement, and transparent investment governance.