Decoupling GHG Emissions and Economic Growth in ASEAN: An Assessment

Abstract

This study assesses greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trajectories relative to economic growth across all 10 ASEAN member states over 2000–2022, using multi-gas CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O data from EDGAR v8.0. Tapio decoupling elasticity and a CAGR-based NDC alignment gap classification are applied jointly, complemented by an LMDI decomposition and subperiod sensitivity analysis. Weak decoupling is found in nine of ten countries over the full period, but subperiod analysis shows this classification is unstable, with several economies moving into expansive-negative territory after 2010. GHG composition is markedly heterogeneous: CH 4 exceeds 60% of CO 2 -equivalent emissions in Myanmar and Cambodia. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar face a critical NDC alignment gap. Findings indicate that regional climate governance requires harmonised multi-gas monitoring, subperiod NDC baselines, and differentiated sectoral strategies for methane-dominant economies. The assessment covers territorial CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O from energy, industrial process, agricultural, and waste sources, excluding LULUCF.