Assessment of The Reliability and Energy Generation Potential of Solar Power Plant Equipment Under Variable External Conditions

Abstract

The article proposes a method for assessing the combined effect of variable solar irradiance, high temperatures, wind speed, partial cloud cover, dust accumulation, and power grid conditions on the reliability and energy generation potential of photovoltaic power plant equipment. A thermoelectric model for the PV system was developed, and the module temperature was determined as a function of irradiance, ambient temperature, and wind speed, in accordance with the Sandia approach. It was shown that during the calculation day, the temperature effect reduces energy production by up to 11.8% compared to the irradiation-based ideal model. In four external condition scenarios, the daily energy potential varied from 6.45 MWh to 4.80 MWh. In the simplified reliability model for equipment failures, inverters and the power transformer accounted for the main share of expected energy losses; total technical outages amounted to approximately 0.34% of the base annual energy. For the 0.4/10 kV network model corresponding to the PowerFactory configuration, it was shown that Volt–VAR control reduces voltage deviation during cloud cover. The results can be used for monitoring, forecasting, and condition-based maintenance planning.