Fundamental of Modeling for the Assessment of Organizational Risks in the Integrated Safety System at Explosion and Fire-Hazardous Enterprises

Abstract

The article examines the problem of quantitatively assessing organizational risks within the integrated safety system (ISS) of explosion and fire-hazardous enterprises. An approach is proposed for representing the ISS as an organizational management system, in which organizational risks are considered to be causal factors influencing the probability of hazardous events such as accidents and fires. For a normative evaluation of the contribution of organizational risks, it is proposed to use a conditional information measure, the "conditional bit". It reflects the contribution of a specific risk to a realized hazardous event. The possibility of applying an additive weighted model and an interval scale for ranking organizational risks is substantiated. The practical significance of the results lies in their potential use by the ISS management body while developing measures aimed at reducing organizational risks and the probability of accidents and fires.