Cyber-Economic Security Index of the State: Construction and Forecasting

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development and forecasting of the Cyber-Economic Security Index (CESI). The proposed index integrates three key dimensions of cybereconomic resilience: cybersecurity (NCSI), digital development (NRI), and economic freedom (IEF), forming a composite indicator that reflects the overall level of cyber-economic security. The methodological framework is based on the geometric aggregation of normalized sub-indices, which captures the interdependence of components and reduces the influence of extreme values. To forecast CESI dynamics, the classical exponential smoothing approach is applied, enabling short-term prediction under limited data availability. The empirical analysis covers selected European countries over the period 2020-2025, with forecasted values for 2026. To validate the proposed index, a comparative analysis of component indicators and country rankings based on NCSI and CESI was conducted. The results demonstrate that individual indicators cannot comprehensively reflect cyber-economic security. Moreover, ranking shifts after integrating digital and economic dimensions confirm the analytical validity and added value of the proposed composite index. The findings reveal significant differences in cyber-economic security across countries. Germany and the Czech Republic demonstrate the highest levels of cyber-economic resilience, while Poland, Slovakia, and Croatia show moderate but stable performance. Ukraine remains at a lower level, reflecting the impact of economic instability and external shocks, although signs of gradual stabilization are observed. The proposed CESI framework provides a practical tool for comparative assessment, forecasting, and evidence-based policymaking in the fields of digital transformation, cybersecurity, economic security, and post-war recovery under conditions of increasing digitalization and global uncertainty.